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The demographic transition model consists of five stages:
  1. Low-growth stage :high birth rate and high death rate lead to a population that varies over time, with little long-term population growth.
  2. High-growth stage:high birth rate and declining death rate lead to sustained and significant population increase.
  3. Moderate-growth stage:declining birth rate combined with already low death rate lead to continuing population growth.
  4. Low-growth or stationary stage: low birth rate and low death rate lead to a very low rate of growth.
  5. Declining population: very low birth rate and low death rate lead to decreasing population.

“The transition in the demographic transition occurs in stages 2 and 3, when death rates decline and then birth rates decline. When the death rate and birth rate fall, the country transitions from a high growth rate to a low or sustained growth rate. “ textbook Human Geography: People, Place, and Culture De Blij, page 52.

Further break down:
  • Stage 1:
    • Epidemics and plaques keep death rates high
    • Famines

  • Stage 2:
    • Population explosion (less deaths, birth rates still high)
    • Life improvement : ex. Industrial Revolution

  • Stage 3:
    • Continuing decreasing death rates, birth rates also decline
    • Greater urbanization, wealth, medical advances
    • Women delay marriage and child bearing
    • Contraceptives and abortion

  • Stage 4:
    • Low TFR
    • Women are the most educated and involved in the labor force

  • Stage 5:
    • Very low TFR
    • Low death rate
    • Family planning and good health
    • Improved status for women
    • Later marriages



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